The NFL season is finally upon us and we have regular season action this week. While the festivities officially begin on Thursday, my Packers vs. Eagles predictions will leave you “loving” Friday football!
Find out why we lean to the Packers in our NFL picks for Friday, September 6. And be sure to read our full Packers vs Eagles predictions from Jason Logan.
Packers vs Eagles predictions
Early spread leanPackers +3 (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
No matter which angle you choose to compare these two teams from, there is no reason for the Philadelphia Eagles to be favored by a field goal over the Green Bay Packers on a neutral field.
If we’re going purely based on last year’s performances, the Packers’ have the edge on offense. They had 5.7 yards per play (sixth in the NFL) to the Eagles’ 5.4 (13th), and ranked sixth in offensive DVOA to Philadelphia’s tenth.
This of course was all done in Jordan Love’s first year as a starter throwing the league’s youngest snap-weighted collection of skill position players compared to an Eagles offense featuring superstar-level names like Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Jason Kelce (who of course is now retired).
Neither defense was particularly impressive last year, and both teams are with new defensive coordinators. The Eagles notably picked up Vic Fangio, one of the league’s most esteemed coordinators, but one who deploys a defense that asks a lot of each group and has never shown high-level returns until year two (like in Denver and Chicago).
Early Over/Under leanUnder 48.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The total here is a bit harder to pinpoint, as again, both teams have new defensive coordinators who are implementing entirely different defensive schemes from their predecessors.
Fangio brings a two-high shell that typically involves a lot of dime usage and light boxes (which invites a lot of running). New Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will presumably shift the Packers away from the rigid philosophies of Joe Barry.
For one, Green Bay will shift away from Barry’s gap-and-a-half approach in the trenches. This will free up the likes of sleeper Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rashan Gary, the recently extended Kenny Clark, and even the misused-to-date Devonte Wyatt to penetrate as opposed to eating up blocks.
And of course instead of Barry’s infamous excessive padding in coverage and rigid coverage matchups post-motion, talented defensive backs like Jaire Alexander and the newly acquired Xavier McKinney can actually play the receivers and the ball.
Marrying the two, if we anticipate the run being invited by Fangio’s light boxes and the Packers’ defense to be better at not allowing deep scoring drives, we should see this game pace below the total.
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Packers vs Eagles live odds
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Shawn Wronka
Betting Analyst
Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.
After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.
A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.
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